THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Less than two years after anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders led his party to a stunning victory in Dutch parliamentary elections, the Netherlands is going to the polls again.
The lawmaker, who has lived under round-the-clock protection for more than 20 years due to death threats, in June by hauling his Party for Freedom ministers out of a fractious four-party ruling coalition in a dispute over his far-reaching plans to crack down on immigration.
Reining in migration has again dominated campaigning ahead of the vote for all 150 seats in the Dutch parliament's legislative House of Representatives, as even parties that usually occupy the political middle ground have been tugged to the right by the popularity of Wilders' fierce rhetoric.
But even if Wilders wins again — and polls suggest it will be a knife-edge result — he will struggle to form a majority coalition as major parties have ruled out joining him, even before election day.
The leader of the center-right Christian Democrats, Henri Bontenbal, said Wilders’ party and the far-right Forum for Democracy “do not defend democracy, and it’s very important to defend democracy in these days.â€
The outgoing government led by Dick Schoof, a career civil servant hand-picked by Wilders to become prime minister, went down in history as one of the shortest-lived in modern Dutch history and was notorious for infighting among its members.
Wilders, whose party won 37 seats in the , is unrepentant, arguing that he was left no choice but to bring down the government because other coalition parties balked at supporting his anti-immigration agenda.
The big issues
Most parties want to arriving in this often crowded nation of 18 million people. Other major issues are tackling a shortage of affordable housing and reining in soaring health care costs. Issues that have taken a back seat include the climate crisis and defense spending as Europe to counter Russian aggression.
Wilders, sometimes referred to as the Dutch Donald Trump, has focused his election campaign on a 10-point plan to enforce a total halt to asylum-seekers entering the Netherlands, including turning people back at the borders with Belgium and Germany.
“The Netherlands has become one big asylum-seekers center,†he said during a televised debate where he was repeatedly criticized by his political opponents for installing what they called incompetent ministers in the last government and then bringing it down.
The Netherlands is not alone in shifting to the right
The Dutch lurch toward the right fits into a worldwide shift, said Léonie de Jonge, professor of research on far-right extremism at the University of Tübingen in Germany.
“We are definitely seeing a steady and global rise of the far right. It’s a global phenomenon, and the Netherlands is not immune to that,†De Jonge said in a telephone interview.
Anti-immigrant , including demonstrations against asylum-seeker centers and recent rioting in The Hague where a police car was torched and the headquarters of a centrist political party was attacked.
Last month, Dutch King Willem-Alexander, in a speech written by the outgoing government, called for a return to the Dutch amid polarization that has brought about the fourth general election in less than a decade.
The resurgence of the Christian Democrats
The Christian Democrats were not part of the last ruling coalition after suffering a slump in their vote in 2023. But the party is now polling strongly under the leadership of former sustainability adviser Bontenbal, who is campaigning on a pledge to restore decency to Dutch politics.
“What we have seen is two years of politics of division and chaos. What we want ... to present is a politics of hope and responsibility," Bontenbal told The Associated Press during a campaign stop in his home city of Rotterdam.
Bontenbal is one of several leaders of mainstream parties who has ruled out joining Wilders' party in a coalition government.
University of Amsterdam professor Claes de Vreese said that if Wilders wins the vote and is unable to form a majority coalition, “then a minority Cabinet could be an option. But that is a construction that hardly exists in the Dutch political tradition."
If forming a minority coalition fails, “historically, the biggest party loses the right to form a coalition and it goes to the second-placed party.†But, De Vreese added, “this process is more based on conventions and history than a ready-made plan.â€
Former European Commission vice president leads the center left
Another strong contender is the center-left bloc of Green Left and the Labor Party led by former European Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans. He wants to move on from what he casts as the stasis of the Schoof administration.
“The problem of this country is that in the last couple of years nothing has happened," he told AP. “No problem was solved, every problem got even bigger. So what we need to do is ... get this country working again and put this country on a social track.â€
Timmermans' party is campaigning on a platform of building 100,000 new homes a year to alleviate a chronic shortage of affordable houses.
The election will lead to possibly lengthy coalition talks
While the outcome of the election is far from certain, one thing is for sure: Another coalition government, and possibly months of negotiations to cobble together enough parties to form a majority in the House of Representatives.
Voter Herman de Jong, visiting a market in Rotterdam while Bontenbal was campaigning is tired of the political infighting.
“We need stability, calmness, unity, something like that," he said. "I think the constant arguing between the parties isn’t good for the people.â€
