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The seat in western Manitoba is a longtime Progressive Conservative stronghold, and the Tories captured more than 60 per cent of the vote there in the 2023 provincial election.

Premier Wab Kinew told more than 100 supporters at the nomination meeting that the NDP is more serious this time about contesting the seat. Some areas of the riding had not seen NDP-orange lawn signs in previous contests, he said.

"We think we have a chance, and it'll be up to Spruce Woods residents to decide whether that's a strong chance or a slim chance," Kinew told reporters after.

The byelection is being held to replace Grant Jackson, a Tory who resigned in March to run for federal office. The Tories have chosen Colleen Robbins, a longtime party volunteer, while the Liberals have selected teacher Stephen Reid.

A win for the NDP would give the party a toehold in the rural southwest part of the province. Spruce Woods is largely rural but also includes the northern section of Brandon since electoral boundaries were redrawn in 2018.

A political analyst said the NDP will have an uphill battle.

"I would say the odds are still a little bit long but I would say the NDP does have a shot," said Christopher Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

The NDP is riding high in opinion polls and pulled off a major upset last year in a byelection in the Tuxedo constituency in Winnipeg. The NDP won the seat, which had always voted strongly Progressive Conservative and had previously been the seat of former Tory premiers Gary Filmon and Heather Stefanson.

A date for the byelection has not been set, but under provincial law it must be held by Sept. 16.

The outcome won't affect the NDP majority in the legislature. The NDP currently holds 34 seats to the Tories' 20. The Liberals have one seat and there is one Independent.

This report by ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø was first published July 24, 2025.