On Monday, ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø electors granted the Liberal party its fourth consecutive mandate and a minority government.Ìý
The result not only denied Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party an election win that once looked inevitable, but Poilievre lost his long-held riding of Carleton to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.Ìý
Poilievre has since announced he will be running in a byelection in the Alberta riding of Battle River—Crowfoot after Conservative MP Damien Kurek said he would step aside.Ìý
This past week, several claims appeared on social media saying the reshaping of Carleton's boundaries or the addition of 40,000 immigrants to the riding influenced the outcome of the election. Here's a look at some of the claims about Carleton.Ìý
DID CARLETON'S BOUNDARY CHANGES ENSURE A LIBERAL WIN?
Some social media users on sites like and suggested Carleton's riding boundaries changed to favour Liberal voters.
RATING: Misleading/Lacks evidence Â
Canada added five new ridings in 2023 and changed the boundaries of many others.Ìý
Elections Canada says the Constitution of Canada every 10 years to reflect changes in the population.Ìý
The , conducted by independent commissions in each province.Ìý
Carleton's boundaries changed to incorporate both rural and urban areas.Ìý
In March, some pollsters told ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø the riding changes across Canada because they had more support in fast-growing parts of the country.Ìý
Elections Canada data that of the 2021 federal election in Carleton onto the updated boundaries shows Poilievre would have won his seat even with the changes.Ìý
However, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former pollster for the Trudeau Liberals Dan Arnold said it's "simplistic" to predict election results by comparing the previous election's result to a new riding map, because people change parties, new voters register and people move between ridings.Ìý
“Any shifts that happen because of boundaries are going to pale in comparison to shifts that happen because of the Trump factor or the new leaders for the Conservatives and Liberals, or other factors that are also going to come into play,†before election day.
DID CARLETON ADD 40,000 IMMIGRANTS IN 10 YEARS, A GROWTH OF 95 PER CENT?
An , formerly Twitter, claimed Carleton added 40,000 immigrants in 10 years, with 95 per cent of the riding's population growth attributed to immigration.
RATING: Misleading numbers
The X post screenshots part of an article from an Ottawa publication that mentions Carleton saw a population increase from 89,522 to 131,375 over a decade.Ìý
Those numbers come from Statistics Canada census data for Carleton.Ìý
The population grew from 89,522 in 2011 to 131,375 in 2021 — an increase of about 47 per cent.Ìý
Statistics Canada conducts a census every five years, so are the most recent reliable data available. The data represent Carleton before the 2023 boundary changes.Ìý
The Carleton riding came into effect in 2013, so the most recent immigration data comparison through the census is the period from to 2021.
The immigrant population grew from 15,615 in 2016 to 27,735 in 2021 — an increase of about 77 per cent.Ìý
It's possible the 95 per cent figure came from Statistics Canada's .Ìý
"In 2022, the reason behind Canada's record-high population growth was somewhat different, since international migration accounted for nearly all growth recorded (95.9%)," the agency wrote in 2023.Ìý
Only ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø citizens are eligible to vote in federal elections. Elections Canada works with data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to insure there are no ineligible individuals on its .
WERE THERE MORE VOTES CAST IN CARLETON THAN THE NUMBER OF VOTERS?Â
On X, on the election results in Carleton.
They pointed to the 80 per cent voter turnout in the riding alongside a screenshot of what appears to be 2021 census data from Carleton, which puts the population at 131,375.Ìý
Estimating around 80,000 eligible voters, the user suggested the number of votes cast exceeded the number of voters.Ìý
RATING: Misleading numbersÂ
Preliminary show a voter turnout in Carleton of 81.57 per cent from a total of 86,371 votes. Â
There were 105,889 registered electors from a population of 124,416.Ìý
The 2021 census population data does not reflect population changes since then, nor does it reflect the 2023 boundary changes to the riding.Ìý
Carleton voters have a history of showing up to the polls in high numbers.Ìý
The riding's voter turnout reached in 2021.Ìý
Its previous iteration before the boundary changes, , saw a turnout of 77 per cent in 2019.Ìý
Until his recent defeat, Poilievre held his riding since 2004.Ìý
DID THE 91 CANDIDATES IN CARLETON 'SABOTAGE' POILIEVRE'S CHANCE TO WIN HIS SEAT?
Posts on and claimed Carleton's unusually long ballot — a result of the plan by electoral reform advocacy group the Longest Ballot committee — was a form of "election interference" that ultimately caused Poilievre to lose his riding.Ìý
"Because flooding the ballot with no-name, unqualified candidates confuses voters, splits votes, and sabotages strong incumbents," a Facebook user wrote.Ìý
RATING: MisleadingÂ
It's true the Longest Ballot Committee flooded the ballot, contributing 85 of the 91 candidates in Carleton.Ìý
In his remarks to the House committee on procedure and House affairs in November, noted the long ballots resulting from the Longest Ballot Committee could provide to voters.Ìý
But the high number of candidates ultimately didn't contribute much to Poilievre's loss.Ìý
The majority of candidates received votes in the single digits.Ìý
Even if the number of votes received by NDP, Green party and other non-Liberal candidates went to Poilievre, he would still lose to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, who earned 50.8 per cent of the vote with 43,900 ballots cast.
Poilievre received 39,585 votes, a share of 45.8 per cent.
The election results are preliminary; the final, validated results are expected in the next few days from Elections Canada.
SOURCES
Catherine Morrison. Bruce Fanjoy, retired businessman, says he defeated Poilievre by listening to voters. ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø website. April 30, 2025 ()
David Baxter. Alberta MP to step aside to allow Pierre Poilievre to run for seat in Parliament. ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø website. May 2, 2025 ()
Claims about Carleton boundary changes posted to May 1, 2025 () and April 29, 2025 ()
Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2022. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()Ìý
Implementation of New Federal Electoral Boundaries. Press release, Elections Canada . Sept. 27, 2023 ()
Redrawn ridings could give Conservatives an advantage, say pollsters. ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø via CTV News . March 23, 2025 ()
Transposition of votes dashboard - Interactive visualization and tables. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
X from April 29, 2025 about 40,000 immigrants added to Carleton ()
Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population for Carleton. Statistics Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Census Profile, 2016 Census for Carleton. Statistics Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Canada's population estimates: Record-high population growth in 2022. Statistics Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Voter Registration Safeguards. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
X from April 29, 2025 about Carleton voting turnout and eligible voters ()
April 28, 2025 General Election Results. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Forty-Fourth General Election 2021 Official Voting Results. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Forty-Third General Election 2019 Official Voting Results. Elections Canada . Accessed May 2, 2025 ()
Posts about 91 candidates affecting Poilievre's election results from April 29, 2025 () and April 29, 2025 ()
Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Elections Canada . Accessed April 22, 2025 ()
Remarks of the Chief Electoral Officer Before the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs on Bill C-65, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act. Elections Canada . Nov. 21, 2024 ()
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